Climate Sensitivity by Energy Balance with Urban and Natural Warming

July 29th 2022
By Ken Gregory, P.Eng., Version 3 2022-07-12

The paper Lewis & Curry 2018 presents estimates of climate sensitivity parameters Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR) with uncertainty analysis. The analysis was deficient in that the natural climate change from the base to final periods were not considered and no correction was applied to remove the urban heat island effect (UHIE) from the temperature record. This study presents corrected estimates of ECS and TCR with uncertainty estimates by including the UHIE and natural warming. The median estimate (with likely range in brackets) of ECS and TCR are estimated at 1.19 °C (0.90 - 1.57 °C) and 0.95 °C (0.74 - 1.21 °C), respectively. Global average temperatures are forecast to increase by 0.87 °C (0.70 – 1.08 °C) from 2020 to 2100, assuming the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase exponentially and no natural climate change. The FUND economic model, using updated temperature projections, energy impacts and CO2 fertilization effects, calculates that a 2 °C GMST rise from 2020 would increase global wealth by 12.0% of 2020 GDP by 2174, equivalent to 2020US$11.1 trillion.

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